Security Vacuum Fears: Experts Warn Recognition Could Empower Al-Shabaab

Al-Shabaab exploitation of Somaliland crisis, Somalia security transition 2025, AUSSOM mission Somalia, regional instability Horn of Africa. Al-Shabaab

ANALYSIS — Security experts at the African Union are sounding the alarm that the diplomatic rift caused by Somaliland’s recognition could provide a “golden opportunity” for extremist groups like Al-Shabaab. As the transition from ATMIS to the new AUSSOM mission begins on January 1, 2025, political infighting between Mogadishu and Hargeisa threatens to distract from counter-terrorism efforts.

The Federal Government of Somalia has warned that the “unlawful step” by Israel creates a vacuum that terrorist groups will exploit by framing the central government as “weak” or “victim of foreign intervention.” With Trump refusing to back the move and the African Union standing firm on unity, the focus remains on preventing a security collapse that could affect the entire Gulf of Aden.